STA 240 Probability for Statistical Inference

Duke University Spring 2026

Below is a prospective outline for the course. Due dates are firm, but topics may change with advanced notice.

WEEK	DATE	PREPARE	TOPIC	MATERIALS	DUE
1	Wed, Jan 7	DS: 1.1 - 1.2	Lec 1: Intro
	Thu, Jan 8		Lab 0: calculus review	Notes
2	Mon, Jan 12	DS: 1.3 - 1.4	Lec 2: Set theory	Notes
	Wed, Jan 14	DS: 1.5	Lec 3: Probability spaces	Notes
	Thu, Jan 15		Lab 1: hello R		Lab 1 @11:59 PM
	Sun, Jan 18				Pset 0 @11:59 PM
3	Mon, Jan 19		MLK Day - No class
	Wed, Jan 21	DS: 1.6-1.8	Lec 4: Counting	Notes for Lec 4 and 5
	Thu, Jan 22		Lab 2: counting		Lab 2 @11:59 PM
	Sun, Jan 25				Pset 1 @11:59 PM
4	Mon, Jan 26	DS: 1.6-1.8	Lec 5: Counting	Zoom recording, Notes for Lec 4 and 5
	Wed, Jan 28	DS: 2	Lec 6: Conditional probability	Notes, Play around!
	Thu, Jan 29		Lab 3: disease testing		Lab 3 @11:59 PM
	Sun, Feb 1			Problem 2 proof	Pset 2 @11:59 PM
5	Mon, Feb 2	DS: 2	Lec 7: Independence	Zoom recording, Notes
	Wed, Feb 4	DS: 3.1, 3.3, 4.1	Lec 8: Random variables intro	Notes
	Thu, Feb 5		Lab 4: ChatGPT		Lab 4 @11:59 PM
	Sun, Feb 8				Pset 3 @11:59 PM
6	Mon, Feb 9	DS: 5.1-5.4	Lec 9: Discrete families	Notes
	Wed, Feb 11	DS: 4.2	Lec 10: Expected value	Notes
	Thu, Feb 12		Midterm 1 review
	Sun, Feb 15				Pset 4 @11:59 PM
7	Mon, Feb 16	DS: 4.3	Lec 11: Variance	Notes
	Wed, Feb 18		Midterm 1
	Thu, Feb 19		Lab 5: random dating		Lab 5 @11:59 PM
8	Mon, Feb 23	DS: 3.3	Lec 12: Continuous random vars	Notes for Lec 12 and 13
	Wed, Feb 25	DS: 3.2	Lec 13: Continuous random vars
	Thu, Feb 26		Lab 6: normal and gamma		Lab 6 @11:59 PM
9	Mon, Mar 2	DS: 5.6-5.7	Lec 14: Normal, gamma	Notes
	Wed, Mar 4	DS: 4.4-4.5	Lec 15: Moments and quantiles	Notes
	Thu, Mar 5	DS: 3.8	Lab 7: transformations		Lab 7 @11:59 PM
10	Mon, Mar 9		Spring Break - No classes
11	Mon, Mar 16	DS: 4.4-4.5	Lec 16: MGF	Notes
	Wed, Mar 18	DS: 3.4-3.7	Lec 17: Joint discrete r.v.’s	Notes
	Thu, Mar 19	DS: 12	Lab 8: simulation		Lab 8 @11:59 PM
	Sun, Mar 22				Pset 5 @11:59 PM
12	Mon, Mar 23	DS: 3.4-3.7	Lec 18: Joint continuous r.v.’s	Notes
	Wed, Mar 25	DS: 6	Lec 19: Sums and averages	Notes
	Thu, Mar 26		Midterm 2 review
	Sun, Mar 29				Pset 6 @11:59 PM
13	Mon, Mar 30	DS: 6	Lec 20: CLT	Notes
	Wed, Apr 1		Midterm 2
	Thu, Apr 2		Lab 9: insurance		Lab 9 @11:59 PM
14	Mon, Apr 6		Lec 21: What is statistics?	Notes
	Wed, Apr 8		Lec 22: What is statistics?	Notes: stats part 2, Notes: intro to MLE
	Thu, Apr 9		Lab 10: MLE		Lab 10 @11:59 PM
15	Mon, Apr 13		Lec 23: Maximum likelihood	Notes
	Wed, Apr 15		Lec 24: MLE+intro to Bayes	Notes
	Thu, Apr 16		Lab 11: Bayes		Lab 11 @11:59 PM
16	Mon, Apr 20		Lec 25: Bayesian inference	Notes
	Wed, Apr 22		Final exam review
	Sat, Apr 25				Pset 7 @11:59 PM
17	Mon, Apr 27		Final exam (9am-12pm)